Eight Ever: Nine Never Maybe

Mary Alice Seville

2011 Emerald Empire Regional

We’ve all heard forever the maxim 8 Ever: 9 Never. Science supports 8 ever. The odds are something like 50% vs. 33% that the finesse will be the right play (Even with those odds, the experts don’t take the finesse just because “it’s there”.) But 9 Never is a different story. The odds (the exact number depends on who you believe) favor the drop but only by a small margin. All the experts advise that you look at all other factors and only if you can’t find a clue, fall back on 9 never. Joe’s hand shows what happens when you slavishly follow old maxims. (Over)

Let’s look at some clues that suggest drop over finesse:

Dummy ♠AJ97

Declarer ♠KT865

• Does one opponent have a long suit? Play the other for the queen.

• In No trump, can you play on other suits first to get an idea of the distribution?

• Law of Symmetry - if you and your partner have an even split in your short suit ... then, a reciprocal 2-2 split will also show up in the opponents' short suit.

• Dangerous opponent. Choose the option that will keep her out of the lead.

• Did an opponent double your contract? Play him for the queen.

• Is this a slam and did your LHO bang down an ace at trick one with little indication that it would be a good idea? Finesse through her.

• The flinch test.

• Being “with the field”.

Dummy ♣AJT986

Declarer ♣K75

Here you are declarer in 3NT. There are no outside entries in dummy. How should you play the suit?

• How many tricks do I need from this suit?

• At pairs, if the opening lead seems odd and has donated a trick to you, you should finesse.

Dummy ♣AKT7432

Declarer ♣86

With no other entries, how should you play this suit? Again, your reasoning should be how many tricks are needed. When this hand was played in 3NT, declarer led the 8 and LHO popped up with Queen. Good news, eh? Not quite. Ask yourself, “Why did he play the queen?”

Here’s another question for you. You have 9 cards in a suit, missing the queen. You play the A and both opponents follow with a low card. Now you lead toward KJ and left hand opponent plays a low card. Do you finesse or play for the drop – assuming you have no clues? Ask Marilyn, in the Sunday paper Parade magazine, is reported to have said the odds have changed in favor of finessing. Statisticians say that the finesse is at best a 50% chance. What to do? I play for the drop always. You should take a view and be consistent.

Joe’s hand:

S H D C

K 5 K 10

5 Q 9

4 J 8

10

8

7

A K A 6

Q 7 5

9 6 3

8

7

6